RBA and RBNZ in Focus as Markets Seek Policy Clarity; UK, Eurozone Data to Set Tone

The Week Ahead: Week of July 7, 2025 (GMT+3)

Weekly Market Preview
The second week of July will be dominated by central bank policy updates from the RBA and RBNZ, with both likely to remain cautious amid external uncertainties and domestic data divergence. Australia’s inflation remains stubborn, but weak consumer confidence and a slowing housing market suggest the RBA could lean dovish despite holding at 3.85%. Similarly, New Zealand’s softening inflation backdrop may keep the RBNZ sidelined at 3.25%, with markets parsing the statement for signs of future cuts.

In the U.S., the focus will turn to the Fed’s June meeting minutes, offering insight into the committee’s internal debate as jobless claims tick higher and yields fluctuate. Treasury auctions and crude inventories could inject additional volatility, especially as traders reassess the Fed’s path after a surprisingly resilient labor report.

Attention will also turn to Europe and the UK. German inflation is cooling, while UK GDP data may signal whether growth is stabilizing or slipping back into stagnation — a key input ahead of the Bank of England’s next decision.

Key Events to Watch:

Tuesday, July 8 – 07:30
RBA Interest Rate Decision (Jul)
Previous: 3.85% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
The RBA last held rates at 3.85%, maintaining its cautious stance amid sticky inflation and external headwinds tied to U.S. tariffs. While recent job data has been mixed and household spending remains subdued, the central bank is walking a tightrope between curbing inflation and protecting growth. If the RBA signals concern over weak domestic demand or hints at a pause, AUD could face downside pressure. Conversely, any hawkish tilt could push the Aussie higher, especially against lower-yielding peers.

Wednesday, July 9 – 05:00
RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
Previous: 3.25% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is widely expected to hold rates steady at 3.25%, having paused its tightening cycle amid easing inflation and weaker economic momentum. The previous hold came as inflation moderated and retail sales disappointed. Should the RBNZ hint at a dovish tilt or potential rate cuts later this year, NZD may weaken. However, if the tone remains neutral or highlights inflation risks, the kiwi could find some support.

Wednesday, July 9 – 17:30
U.S. Crude Oil Inventories
Previous: 3.845M | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
U.S. crude stockpiles jumped by nearly 4 million barrels last week, reflecting sluggish demand and potentially peaking refinery output. A similar build this week could raise concerns about oversupply and weigh on oil prices, reinforcing disinflationary trends. A surprise drawdown, however, would support crude and possibly nudge inflation expectations higher — something that could impact Fed rate bets and USD direction.

Wednesday, July 9 – 20:00
U.S. 10-Year Note Auction
Previous: 4.421% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
Last month’s 10-year auction cleared at a relatively elevated yield of 4.421%, reflecting mixed sentiment toward Fed policy and inflation. Another weak auction result (high yields/low bid-cover) could push Treasury yields higher, strengthening the dollar and weighing on equities. Strong demand would suggest renewed appetite for duration and could pressure yields lower.

Wednesday, July 9 – 21:00
FOMC Meeting Minutes (June)
Previous: N/A | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
Markets will scrutinize the Fed’s minutes for more clarity on internal divisions regarding rate cut timing. The June meeting saw the Fed hold at 4.50%, but recent labor market softness and inflation moderation have revived cut expectations. If the minutes reveal growing concern about slowing demand, dovish bets may strengthen. A more hawkish tone would challenge market pricing for September easing and lift the dollar.

Thursday, July 10 – 15:30
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims
Previous: 233K | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
Initial jobless claims remained elevated at 233K last week, hinting at a gradual loosening in labor conditions. Another rise would bolster expectations that the Fed is nearing a rate cut, especially as other indicators point to cooling demand. A surprise drop below 220K, however, could temporarily delay easing expectations and lift short-end yields.

Thursday, July 10 – 20:00
U.S. 30-Year Bond Auction
Previous: 4.844% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
Last month’s 30-year auction drew a yield of 4.844%, indicating investor hesitation about long-duration assets amid policy uncertainty. This week’s auction will again test demand. Weak results may pressure long-end Treasuries and weigh on equities, while strong demand could support risk sentiment and suggest confidence in peak rates.

Friday, July 11 – 09:00
UK GDP (MoM) (May)
Previous: -0.3% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
The UK economy contracted 0.3% in April, driven by declines in manufacturing and consumer activity. Another monthly decline would signal a more entrenched slowdown, putting pressure on the BoE to reconsider its hawkish stance. A surprise rebound could boost GBP, especially if paired with stable inflation, supporting a higher-for-longer view on rates.

Friday, July 11 – 09:00
German CPI (MoM) (Jun)
Previous: 0.1% | Forecast: 0.0% | Actual: N/A
German inflation slowed to 0.1% in May and is now forecast to flatline in June, as energy prices ease and services inflation moderates. A negative or soft reading would reinforce ECB rate cut bets, possibly pressuring the euro. However, if CPI surprises higher, it could push back expectations for further easing, lifting EUR/USD temporarily.